Prognostics of changes in base flows as a means of support for water resource management

Published
2020-04-24
DOI: https://doi.org/10.14295/ras.v34i1.29593
Keywords: Water resources. Hydrology. Hydrological modeling. Water availability. Recursos Hídricos. Hidrologia. Modelagem hidrológica. Disponibilidade Hídrica.

    Authors

  • Guilherme da Silva Ricardo Universidade do Estado de Santa Catarina - UDESC
  • Sílvio Luís Rafaeli Neto Universidade do Estado de Santa Catarina - UDESC
  • Cláudia Guimarães Camargo Campos Universidade do Estado de Santa Catarina - UDESC
  • Bruno Álvaro Schina Universidade do Estado de Santa Catarina - UDESC

Abstract

The effect of climate change can be observed in the phases of the hydrological cycle of watersheds. The groundwater phase is one of the most important, because it is responsible for the baseflow in the rivers in drought period. Considering the relevance of the groundwater contribution to the flow watersheds the objective of this work was to evaluate the impacts of future climate change scenarios on the baseflow in a watershed of the central west region of Santa Catarina State, with evidence of the future situation (2020 a 2099) in minimum reference flows Q98, Q95 and Q90 and the average baseflow flow, compared with the base period (1977 to 1990). The climate projections generated by the regionalized climate model ETA-HadGEM2-ES for the climate change scenarios RCP 4.5 (intermediate scenario) and RCP 8.5 (pessimistic scenario) were submitted to the HEC-HMS hydrological model calibrated and validated. Future outflow projections was evaluated for future periods that correspond to the future centerings 2030, 2050, 2070 and 2090. The hydrological projection for the critical situation of RCP 8.5 scenario showed that will be a significant percentage reduction in the reference flows Q98 and Q95 for the future centerings in 2030 and 2050 when compared to the base period. Despite the reductions in reference flows, the average basic flow presented a percentage increase of 10.3% and 12.2% respectively. The results presented in this study are relevant to anticipate the planning and early implementation of actions, to reduce the future impacts of climate change on water resources at the watershed level.

How to Cite
Ricardo, G. da S., Rafaeli Neto, S. L., Campos, C. G. C., & Schina, B. Álvaro. (2020). Prognostics of changes in base flows as a means of support for water resource management. Águas Subterrâneas, 34(1), 112–124. https://doi.org/10.14295/ras.v34i1.29593